Phase Shift — Part 2

Putting tipping points into context

Image credit: Pawel Czerwinski via Unsplash
World crude oil plus lease condensate (C + C) production based on EIA data. Note how world oil production stagnated during 2019 and how it failed to recover after the pandemic for 2 years. Even according to the otherwise overly optimistic EIA, oil production is not expected to surpass 2019 levels — continuing the stagnating trend. Remember, oil extraction used to grow 1–2% a year supporting an ever larger fleet of trucks, ships and trains forwarding an ever larger amount of food, minerals and plastics produced with the use of (or made from) oil. The resulting oil price hike and crude inventory draw (including strategic reserves!), which has by the way started long before the war in Ukraine, signals a fundamental under-supply of the market. Peak demand is nowhere to be seen, but peak supply has hit us hard already in November 2018. Image credit: Peak Oil Barrel

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